Investment outlook and analysis following Trump's election, focusing on AI and blockchain sectors

2024 Post-Trump Investment Analysis

This article was written on November 12, 2024. Investment decisions are ultimately the responsibility of the investor.

With Trump’s recent election victory, and Elon Musk’s increasing influence, speculations are rife regarding sectors poised for growth or downturn. Here, we explore potential investment outcomes, focusing on AI and blockchain, particularly Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and TON.

AI Investment Outlook Post-2025 - “The Company” Hypothesis

The “The Company” hypothesis posits that the first company to successfully develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will dominate the industry and potentially redefine the economic landscape:

• The Company: The first to develop AGI will experience exponential self-improvement, effectively “ending the game” as it rapidly scales.
• Power and Resource Limitations: Physical and logistical constraints might limit immediate dominance, though the AGI’s potential could still be extraordinary. Anthropic’s CEO discusses such limitations, giving context to the hypothesis.
• Projected Economic Impact: The Company’s stock value could surpass the GDPs of Korea, Japan, and even the U.S., possibly exceeding global GDP within a few years. As demand for its services grows, it would drive up the dollar’s value worldwide, potentially creating unprecedented currency inflation (e.g., USD/KRW exceeding 2000, or even 10000 in extreme scenarios).

Projected AGI Development Leaders

Through extensive model evaluations and interviews with leading technologists, the following estimates represent each company’s likelihood of pioneering AGI:

• 2023 AGI Leader Forecast:

  • OpenAI: 40%
  • Meta: 20%
  • Others: 40%

• 2024 Updated AGI Leader Forecast:

  • xAI: 45%
  • OpenAI: 10%
  • Meta: 15%
  • Anthropic: 15%
  • Others: 15%

This distribution reflects the current outlook based on model quality, leadership insights, and market momentum, suggesting an investment portfolio aligned with these probabilities.

Blockchain Investment Outlook Post-2025

트럼프가 규제 완화에 진심이라 블럭체인 규제 완화가 진행 될 것으로 예상. 먼저 금년 3월에 쓴 내 트위터

I love $TON now.

텔레그램에 월릿이랑 web3 app들도 아주 매끄럽게 잘 된다. TON payment만 애플 페이 수준으로 만들어주면 $sol 자리 위협할 수 있을 듯

다만, github 보니 TON 개발팀에 코어 개발자 둘 셋 더 필요해보임

한달 분석결과 개인적인 예측
현재 $TON $4.3

~24: $10
~25: $40
🚀

— 𝐆 𝐈𝐦 🚀 (@icedac) March 14, 2024

Bitcoin

Bitcoin resembles tulips of the 17th century: it primarily functions as a speculative asset and proof of concept for blockchain technology. It behaves as a “paper currency,” relying on collective trust. Thus, price predictions remain speculative, dependent on popularity and regulatory changes in each country.

Ethereum

Ethereum faces technical challenges, especially in transaction speed. Vitalik’s roadmap addresses these limitations by proposing layer-2 solutions. Although innovative for its smart contract capabilities, Ethereum may struggle to maintain strong growth in the face of technical and scalability issues, although it retains utility as a digital currency.

Solana

Solana’s development has stagnated in recent months, with the core repository showing limited updates. The milestone 2.0 project paused early this year, following the resignation of two core developers. LinkedIn checks confirmed their departures. Given these developments, investment in Solana is discouraged.

TON

TON exhibits several promising factors:

• Development Activity: The TON repository shows active development, with top contributors consistently maintaining the codebase.
• Roadmap: The TON roadmap outlines plans for “TON Pay,” aiming to establish a robust position within the digital payments sector. Successful implementation could allow TON to claim Solana’s current market share.
• Whitepaper Insights: The TON whitepaper reveals technical sophistication, with founder Pavel Durov leveraging his expertise to design a high-throughput system from the ground up. Smart contracts, while complex, prioritize transaction speed and scalability.

Risks

• Russian Affiliation: Although Pavel Durov has relocated to Dubai, he maintains ties with Russia, creating a geopolitical risk, particularly among U.S. investors. This risk previously resulted in a SEC clampdown, preventing a U.S. Coinbase listing.
• Legal and Regulatory Uncertainty: Durov’s recent legal issues in Paris, involving a high-profile arrest and bail release, add volatility. However, resolution in early 2025 could positively influence TON’s trajectory.

Price Projection (Current: $5)

• 2025: $10 (80% probability of CEO risk resolution), $15 (30% probability of Coinbase listing)
• 2026: $50 (successful TON Pay launch)
• 2027: $200 (if listed in the U.S. and TON Pay gains traction)

Based on these projections, we suggest a portfolio that heavily weights TON against both AI and other blockchain investments, given its high upside potential in a favorable regulatory environment.

Conclusion

BUY $TON! and $TSLA ONELINE 책임없는 Prediction: $TON $10-15 in 2025, $TSLA $500-$2000 in 2025

AGAIN, This article was written on November 12, 2024. Investment decisions are ultimately the responsibility of the investor.